Daily Dabble: April 28

IT’S been yonks since I’ve done one of these so it’s time to start putting things right. That’s mainly because I fancy INAAM (3.20) at Lingfield. Richard Fahey is beginning to fire in the winners and this buzzy three-year-old already has two all-weather wins on the board. He has a habit of finding trouble and he would probably have won last time out if he had not been hampered twice.

Inaam is up in class today and it is a warm handicap but I am convinced there is more to come and if he gets a clear passage and if he can settle then he could go close at a nice price (currently 12/1 in most books). Yes, there are a couple of “ifs” in there but he is well drawn and should get the bit of cover that he needs.

Fahey also has two massive chances at Redcar in ZAHRAT NARJIS (3.35)  and JORDAN SPORT (4.05) while the first UK National Hunt meeting of the new season takes place at sunny Sedgefield, where the ground could ride pretty quick. Champion jockey Richard Johnson travels north for two rides, both for Brian Ellison, and DOWN TIME (6.15) looks to have a serious chance. Be lucky!

3 thoughts on “Daily Dabble: April 28”

  1. Graham Oliver says:

    Hi Jason,

    Are you deserting us? You must be a busy man. I’m sure that I am not the only one that is missing reading your tips and comments.

    The Flat really gets into top gear this weekend with the Guineas at Newmarket.

    In the Two Thousand the hot favourite does look a good thing on his two year old form. However Aidan O’Brien appeared to be hedging his bets a little when saying that Air Force Blue had so much speed that there had to be a slight doubt about him getting the trip.

    I think he will get the trip and win, but I suggest that the 12-1 chance Marcel, possibly still under rated and winner of last term’s Racing Post Trophy, may follow him home. Stormy Antarctic should the minor birth.

    I do look forward to watching Jack Hobbs back in action in the Jockey Club Stakes. He should beat Simple Verse.

    Sunday sees the reappearance of Minding in the One Thousand Guineas. You may remember that after her appearance last October in the Fillies Mile I ventured to suggest that I would like to see Minding go for the Derby after the Guineas.

    I still think that Minding will win on Sunday, but suggest that her stable companion Ballydoyle is not such a forlorn hope that I had once thought. She looked very impressive in her televised workout last Saturday, and it may be that she will give Minding something to think about.

    Mark Johnson will not hear of defeat for Lumiere, so i take that filly for third.

    I apologise for being so unadventurous in my selections, but the old adage does say that a hundred to one on winner is better than a hundred to won against loser.

    If I had to nominate one horse it would have to be Marcel each way at 12-1 in Saturday’s Two Thousand. A good run may see him shorten to near favourite for the Derby.

    Cheers!

    1. Jason Heavey says:

      Busy indeed Graham. Hoping Lumiere can light up Newmarket later!

      1. Graham Oliver says:

        Two very interesting Guineas races.

        In the Two Thousand I really feel that I deserve a special sort of prize for nominating three horses that managed to be the last three home. Amazing!

        The winner, Galileo Gold, won on merit, and seems a good horse. Will he stay the Derby trip if connections decide to run him at Epsom? Personally I don’t think he will. But there is only one Derby, and when will the next Derby horse come along? Would it be wiser to go for the Prix du Jockey Club, which, after all, is over ten furlongs?

        Although Galileo Gold’s sire, Paco Boy, was a miler, that shouldn’t rule him out staying one and a half miles. Derby winners have been sired by sprinters, such as Hard Ridden (Hard Sauce) Dr Devious (Ahonoora) and North Light (Danehill). The miler Cape Cross has only recently sired two brilliant Derby winners in Sea The Stars and Golden Horn. Galileo Gold also has stamina through his dam sire Galileo. I still have my doubts though.

        Nothing behind him gave any cause for confidence at Epsom, including Marcel, who finished last. Will any even run? We shall have to look elsewhere, methinks.

        What happened to Air Force Blue? Test are being carried out on the horse, who is apparently fine. We shall have to wait and see. Sometimes champion two year old’s just don’t train on, and there have been many over the years. War Command, Diesis, Storm Bird, Monteverdi, Tromos, Try My Best, Cellini, and Appalachee are some that spring readily to mind.

        Minding was an impressive winner of the One Thousand. I have written before (I know, more than once) that I would like to see Minding head for the Derby. Immediately after today’s race odds were offered of 5/2 and 3/1 Minding with a run for the Derby.

        These odds will not last long if US Army Ranger fails to impress at Chester next Thursday. This horse is the sole winner of his only race, a maiden in heavy ground at the Curragh last month. He accelerated well to lead close home to win comfotably by three quarters of a length. He may be a champion, but not on the bare form of this race. The Chester Vase will tell us a lot more.

        Of those behind Minding, the runner up, Ballydoyle, ran a superb Oaks trial. Well behind early, she came with a great rattle to deprive her stable mate, Alice Springs, of second spot . At the present time, in the absence of Minding, Ballydoyle would be my Oaks fancy. Another AOB filly, Even Song, also ran well when third in the Pretty Polly two races after the Guineas. One to keep an eye on.

        After making the running, Lumiere dropped right out to finish last. Has she not trained on? We shall have to wait and see. The instances of champion two year old fillies that have failed to train on are too numerous to mention, however, Rosdhu Queen and Tiggy Wiggy do spring immediately to mind.

        This, to me, is the most exciting part of the Flat season. Whist some equine reputations are being enhanced, and new heroes appearing that nobody had heard of just a few weeks before, others are on a downward spiral. They may resurface as good as before, or just be retired. It is all in the lap of the gods.

        Cheers.

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