
IN 1987, I made my first trip to Aintree on Grand National day. It was jam-packed, as you would expect, and the atmosphere was boisterous but it was a wonderful place to be for a racing-mad teenager. That year is memorable for a few reasons (apart from Everton winning the league): the tragedy of Dark Ivy at Becher’s Brook and for seeing one of the shortest priced favourites in the race’s long history in West Tip.
I’ve written about the death of Dark Ivy previously on this blog but West Tip was backed into 5-1 favourite after being smashed up in the market on the day itself. (Grand National anoraks will correct me if I’m wrong about his SP). I can’t recall too many shorter priced favourites in the National but we could see something similar in this year’s race.
Last year’s winner MANY CLOUDS is already a general 8/1 shot to win back-to-back Nationals. His performance last year was immense as it came at the end of a gruelling campaign, which saw him win the Hennessy, BetBright Chase and run with credit in the Gold Cup. To then carry 11st 9lb to victory around Aintree seemed an astonishing achievement at the time and he was generally unfancied. He has backed up last season’s achievements with another solid campaign so far and looked a million dollars when he jumped beautifully at Kelso the other day in his prep race. Crucially, he has had an easier time of it and his season has been geared around Aintree. I was lucky enough to attend the Northern Media lunch at Aintree last week and Leighton Aspell was in fairly bullish mood, in his own understated manner.
Aspell could provide another potential blockbuster of a story: he could become the first jockey to win the Grand National three years on the spin. Some riders never even manage to get round (namecheck Jonjo O’Neill).
Many Clouds will only carry 1lb more in the 2016 Crabbie’s Grand National as the maximum weight is now set at 11st 10lb. I don’t think weight is an issue with him in any case because he is a big brute of a chaser: in fact, if you were to design the perfect national hunt specimen, he would be it.
Can anything beat him? My only real concern would be ground that was on the quick side of good but after talking to clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch it seems highly unlikely that will materialise. He is aiming to produce ground that is on the “easy side of good.” In any case, the forecast is for a lot of rain in the next week, so it could be even softer.
Here are three horses who might give you a good run for your each-way money.
HOLYWELL: Is devilishly well handicapped on his best form and ran a blinder at Cheltenham last time out. He has also won around the mildmay course at Aintree but he absolutely needs good ground. He could get it but if it is soft then you can put a line through him. Jonjo has made no secret of the fact that he is quirky but the National is often won by a horse with a bit of, ahem, character. If he takes to the fences he could serve it up to Many Clouds and at 16/1 is overpriced. Equally he may spit his equine dummy out and not go a yard.
HIGHLAND LODGE: Jimmy Moffat’s Becher Chase winner is not even certain to get a run. He needs 11 to come out but I think he’ll sneak in. It would be a travesty if he doesn’t. In fact, I think winners of a select group of races should receive automatic qualification for the National: the Becher and Welsh National being among them. Highland Lodge was once a classy young horse with Emma Lavelle and has seemingly been revitalised by a switch to the north. His price of 50/1 is ridiculously high.
ONENIGHTINVIENNA: This would provide a real fairy story if he wins. Owned by Judith Luff, the widow of West Tip’s owner Peter, Onenightinvienna is a novice who has had just four runs over fences. He will stay the trip no problem and although Philip Hobbs has admitted that the owner’s connection to the race is partly the reason he has been targeted at it, he is not without a squeak. It would be a remarkable training performance and a remarkable tale and at 40/1 it is not inconceivable that he could pinch a place.
Who is your ante-post Grand National fancy? Find a needle and delve into the haystack below…
Horse
|
Age/Wgt
|
Owner
|
Trainer
|
|
1)
|
MANY CLOUDS (IRE)
|
9-11-10
|
Trevor Hemmings
|
Oliver Sherwood
|
2)
|
SILVINIACO CONTI (FR)
|
10-11-08
|
Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles
|
Paul Nicholls
|
3)
|
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)
|
10-11-07
|
J P McManus
|
John Kiely IRE
|
4)
|
FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE)
|
11-11-04
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Mouse Morris IRE
|
5)
|
WONDERFUL CHARM (FR)
|
8-11-03
|
Robin Geffen
|
Paul Nicholls
|
6)
|
THIRD INTENTION (IRE)
|
9-11-02
|
Robert and Sarah Tizzard
|
Colin Tizzard
|
7)
|
BALLYNAGOUR (IRE)
|
10-11-02
|
Allan Stennett
|
David Pipe
|
8)
|
O’FAOLAINS BOY (IRE)
|
9-11-01
|
Trembath, Hyde, Outhart & Hill
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
9)
|
GILGAMBOA (IRE)
|
8-11-01
|
J P McManus
|
Enda Bolger IRE
|
10)
|
ON HIS OWN (IRE)
|
12-11-01
|
Andrea & Graham Wylie
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
|
|
|||
11)
|
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (IRE)
|
9-11-00
|
The Stonehenge Druids
|
Neil Mulholland
|
12)
|
TRIOLO D’ALENE (FR)
|
9-11-00
|
Sandy & Caroline Orr
|
Nicky Henderson
|
13)
|
ROCKY CREEK (IRE)
|
10-10-13
|
The Johnson & Stewart Families
|
Paul Nicholls
|
14)
|
SIR DES CHAMPS (FR)
|
10-10-13
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
15)
|
ROI DU MEE (FR)
|
11-10-13
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Gordon Elliott IRE
|
16)
|
HOLYWELL (IRE)
|
9-10-12
|
Gay Smith
|
Jonjo O’Neill
|
17)
|
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (IRE)
|
9-10-11
|
J P McManus
|
Jonjo O’Neill
|
18)
|
SOLL
|
11-10-11
|
Derrick Mossop
|
David Pipe
|
19)
|
BUYWISE (IRE)
|
9-10-10
|
T Hywel Jones
|
Evan Williams
|
20)
|
BOSTON BOB (IRE)
|
11-10-10
|
Andrea & Graham Wylie
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
|
|
|||
21)
|
TURBAN (FR)
|
9-10-10
|
Edward O’Connell
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
22)
|
AACHEN
|
12-10-10
|
Tony Bloom
|
Venetia Williams
|
23)
|
MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE)
|
9-10-09
|
Clipper Logistics Group Ltd
|
Pat Fahy IRE
|
24)
|
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)
|
10-10-09
|
Options O Syndicate
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
25)
|
GOONYELLA (IRE)
|
9-10-08
|
Ann & Alan Potts Partnership
|
Jim Dreaper IRE
|
26)
|
UCELLO CONTI (FR)
|
8-10-08
|
Simon Munir/Issac Souede
|
Gordon Elliott IRE
|
27)
|
UNIONISTE (FR)
|
8-10-08
|
John Hales
|
Paul Nicholls
|
28)
|
LE REVE (IRE)
|
8-10-08
|
Pat Betts
|
Lucy Wadham
|
29)
|
GALLANT OSCAR (IRE)
|
10-10-08
|
J P McManus
|
Tony Martin IRE
|
30)
|
ONENIGHTINVIENNA (IRE)
|
7-10-08
|
Judith Luff
|
Philip Hobbs
|
|
|
|||
31)
|
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)
|
8-10-08
|
Paul & Clare Rooney
|
Kim Bailey
|
32)
|
KRUZHLININ (GER)
|
9-10-07
|
Paul & Clare Rooney
|
Philip Hobbs
|
33)
|
RULE THE WORLD
|
9-10-07
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Mouse Morris IRE
|
34)
|
JUST A PAR (IRE)
|
9-10-06
|
Graham Roach & Paul Barber
|
Paul Nicholls
|
35)
|
KATENKO (FR)
|
10-10-06
|
Andrew Brooks
|
Venetia Williams
|
36)
|
VICS CANVAS (IRE)
|
13-10-06
|
Bodeen Bandits Partnership
|
Dermot McLoughlin IRE
|
37)
|
LIVING NEXT DOOR (IRE)
|
10-10-06
|
John Breslin
|
Tony Martin IRE
|
38)
|
BLACK THUNDER (FR)
|
9-10-06
|
Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb
|
Paul Nicholls
|
39)
|
BALLYCASEY (IRE)
|
9-10-06
|
Susannah Ricci
|
Willie Mullins IRE
|
40)
|
HADRIAN’S APPROACH (IRE)
|
9-10-06
|
Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes
|
Nicky Henderson
|
|
|
|||
41)
|
SPRING HEELED (IRE)
|
9-10-05
|
Dr Ronan Lambe
|
Jim Culloty IRE
|
42)
|
KATKEAU (FR)
|
9-10-05
|
Prof Caroline Tisdall, J A Gent, R C Wilkin
|
David Pipe
|
43)
|
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)
|
7-10-05
|
Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent
|
David Pipe
|
44)
|
PENDRA (IRE)
|
8-10-05
|
J P McManus
|
Charlie Longsdon
|
45)
|
SAINT ARE (FR)
|
10-10-05
|
David Fox
|
Tom George
|
46)
|
HOME FARM (IRE)
|
9-10-04
|
Chris Jones
|
Henry de Bromhead IRE
|
47)
|
THE ROMFORD PELE (IRE)
|
9-10-04
|
Trembath & Outhart
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
48)
|
KNOCK HOUSE (IRE)
|
7-10-03
|
Tim Radford
|
Mick Channon
|
49)
|
BISHOPS ROAD (IRE)
|
8-10-03
|
Alan Halsall
|
Kerry Lee
|
50)
|
PINEAU DE RE (FR)
|
13-10-02
|
John Provan
|
Dr Richard Newland
|
|
|
|||
51)
|
ALVARADO (IRE)
|
11-10-02
|
William & Angela Rucker
|
Fergal O’Brien
|
52)
|
HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE)
|
10-10-02
|
Bowes Lodge Stables
|
James Moffatt
|
53)
|
MAGGIO (FR)
|
11-10-02
|
Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont
|
Patrick Griffin IRE
|
54)
|
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)
|
9-10-02
|
ISL Recruitment
|
Fergal O’Brien
|
55)
|
PRESENT VIEW
|
8-10-02
|
Sir Chips Keswick
|
Jamie Snowden
|
56)
|
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
|
11-10-01
|
The Legends Partnership
|
Alan King
|
57)
|
CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA)
|
8-10-01
|
J P McManus
|
Gordon Elliott IRE
|
58)
|
ROYALE KNIGHT
|
10-10-01
|
Chris Stedman & R J Corsan
|
Dr Richard Newland
|
59)
|
BALLY BEAUFORT (IRE)
|
8-10-01
|
Rob Rexton
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
60)
|
DOUBLE SEVEN (IRE)
|
10-10-01
|
J P McManus
|
Martin Brassil IRE
|
|
|
|||
61)
|
MOUNTAINOUS (IRE)
|
11-10-01
|
Hartley Phillips Roseff Shields
|
Kerry Lee
|
62)
|
SPLASH OF GINGE
|
9-10-00
|
John Neild
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
63)
|
EMPEROR’S CHOICE (IRE)
|
9-10-00
|
The Bellamy Partnership
|
Venetia Williams
|
64)
|
CORRIN WOOD (IRE)
|
9-10-00
|
Dermot Hanafin Robert Rose Ian Whitfield
|
Donald McCain
|
65)
|
DARE TO ENDEAVOUR
|
9-10-00
|
Aidan Ryan
|
Eric McNamara IRE
|
66)
|
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)
|
11-10-00
|
Adrian Butler/S P O’Connor
|
Gordon Elliott IRE
|
67)
|
MILBOROUGH (IRE)
|
10-9-13
|
Helen Cross
|
Ian Duncan
|
68)
|
GAS LINE BOY (IRE)
|
10-9-13
|
The Three Graces
|
Jim Best
|
69)
|
BOB FORD (IRE)
|
9-9-12
|
The JJ Partnership
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
|
|
|||
70)
|
ROGUE ANGEL (IRE)
|
8-9-12
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Mouse Morris IRE
|
71)
|
RUSSE BLANC (FR)
|
9-9-12
|
Mark Jackson
|
Kerry Lee
|
72)
|
FIREBIRD FLYER (IRE)
|
9-9-11
|
R E R Williams
|
Evan Williams
|
73)
|
MR MOONSHINE (IRE)
|
12-9-11
|
D Pryde, J Beaumont, D van der Hoeven 1
|
Sue Smith
|
74)
|
BIG WATER (IRE)
|
8-9-10
|
Elm Row Racing Syndicate
|
Alan Swinbank
|
75)
|
SUMMERY JUSTICE (IRE)
|
12-9-09
|
Mrs H Brown
|
Venetia Williams
|
76)
|
COGRY
|
7-9-09
|
Graham and Alison Jelley
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
77)
|
NO SECRETS (IRE)
|
12-9-09
|
Malcolm Denmark
|
Tony Martin IRE
|
78)
|
BENVOLIO (IRE)
|
9-9-09
|
Patricia Thompson
|
Paul Nicholls
|
79)
|
AMIGO (FR)
|
9-9-08
|
Andrew Cohen & Willsford Racing
|
David Pipe
|
|
|
|||
80)
|
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN (IRE)
|
11-9-08
|
Brocade Racing
|
Colin Tizzard
|
81)
|
STANDING OVATION (IRE)
|
9-9-07
|
The Bravo Partnershi
|
David Pipe
|
82)
|
INDIAN CASTLE (IRE)
|
8-9-07
|
Askew Dick Hernon Reynard
|
Ian Williams
|
83)
|
GOLDEN WONDER (IRE)
|
10-9-07
|
P M Cooney
|
Sandra Hughes IRE
|
84)
|
DOING FINE (IRE)
|
8-9-07
|
Carl Hinchy
|
Rebecca Curtis
|
85)
|
RIVAGE D’OR (FR)
|
11-9-07
|
Gigginstown House Stud
|
Tony Martin IRE
|
86)
|
WYCK HILL (IRE)
|
12-9-06
|
J P McManus
|
David Bridgwater
|
87)
|
IKORODU ROAD
|
13-9-06
|
W J Odell
|
Graeme McPherson
|
88)
|
PORTRAIT KING (IRE)
|
11-9-04
|
James Beaumont & Douglas Pryde
|
Patrick Griffin IRE
|
89)
|
WOODFORD COUNTY
|
9-9-04
|
The Englands and Heywoods
|
Philip Hobbs
|
|
|
|||
90)
|
ANY CURRENCY (IRE)
|
13-9-03
|
Cash Is King
|
Martin Keighley
|
91)
|
TOUR DES CHAMPS (FR)
|
9-9-02
|
Caroline Mould
|
Nigel Twiston-Davies
|
92)
|
GODSMEJUDGE (IRE)
|
10-9-02
|
Favourites Racing Ltd
|
David Dennis
|
93)
|
SAROQUE (IRE)
|
9-9-02
|
Andrew Brooks
|
Venetia Williams
|
94)
|
AERLITE SUPREME (IRE)
|
9-9-01
|
M J Haines
|
Evan Williams
|
95)
|
FINANCIAL CLIMATE (IRE)
|
9-9-01
|
Sara Fillery & Friends
|
Oliver Sherwood
|
96)
|
HARRY THE VIKING
|
11-9-01
|
Jim Beaumont & Quona Thomson
|
Sandy Thomson
|