2016 Crabbie’s Grand National

IN 1987, I made my first trip to Aintree on Grand National day. It was jam-packed, as you would expect, and the atmosphere was boisterous but it was a wonderful place to be for a racing-mad teenager. That year is memorable for a few reasons (apart from Everton winning the league): the tragedy of Dark Ivy at Becher’s Brook and for seeing one of the shortest priced favourites in the race’s long history in West Tip.

I’ve written about the death of Dark Ivy previously on this blog but West Tip was backed into 5-1 favourite after being smashed up in the market on the day itself. (Grand National anoraks will correct me if I’m wrong about his SP). I can’t recall too many shorter priced favourites in the National but we could see something similar in this year’s race.

Last year’s winner MANY CLOUDS is already a general 8/1 shot to win back-to-back Nationals. His performance last year was immense as it came at the end of a gruelling campaign, which saw him win the Hennessy, BetBright Chase and run with credit in the Gold Cup. To then carry 11st 9lb to victory around Aintree seemed an astonishing achievement at the time and he was generally unfancied. He has backed up last season’s achievements with another solid campaign so far and looked a million dollars when he jumped beautifully at Kelso the other day in his prep race. Crucially, he has had an easier time of it and his season has been geared around Aintree. I was lucky enough to attend the Northern Media lunch at Aintree last week and Leighton Aspell was in fairly bullish mood, in his own understated manner.

Aspell could provide another potential blockbuster of a story: he could become the first jockey to win the Grand National three years on the spin. Some riders never even manage to get round (namecheck Jonjo O’Neill).

Many Clouds will only carry 1lb more in the 2016 Crabbie’s Grand National as the maximum weight is now set at 11st 10lb. I don’t think weight is an issue with him in any case because he is a big brute of a chaser: in fact, if you were to design the perfect national hunt specimen, he would be it.

Can anything beat him? My only real concern would be ground that was on the quick side of good but after talking to clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch it seems highly unlikely that will materialise. He is aiming to produce ground that is on the “easy side of good.” In any case, the forecast is for a lot of rain in the next week, so it could be even softer.

Here are three horses who might give you a good run for your each-way money.

HOLYWELL: Is devilishly well handicapped on his best form and ran a blinder at Cheltenham last time out. He has also won around the mildmay course at Aintree but he absolutely needs good ground. He could get it but if it is soft then you can put a line through him. Jonjo has made no secret of the fact that he is quirky but the National is often won by a horse with a bit of, ahem, character. If he takes to the fences he could serve it up to Many Clouds and at 16/1 is overpriced. Equally he may spit his equine dummy out and not go a yard.

HIGHLAND LODGE: Jimmy Moffat’s Becher Chase winner is not even certain to get a run. He needs 11 to come out but I think he’ll sneak in. It would be a travesty if he doesn’t. In fact, I think winners of a select group of races should receive automatic qualification for the National: the Becher and Welsh National being among them. Highland Lodge was once a classy young horse with Emma Lavelle and has seemingly been revitalised by a switch to the north. His price of 50/1 is ridiculously high.

ONENIGHTINVIENNA: This would provide a real fairy story if he wins. Owned by Judith Luff, the widow of West Tip’s owner Peter, Onenightinvienna is a novice who has had just four runs over fences. He will stay the trip no problem and although Philip Hobbs has admitted that the owner’s connection to the race is partly the reason he has been targeted at it, he is not without a squeak. It would be a remarkable training performance and a remarkable tale and at 40/1 it is not inconceivable that he could pinch a place.

Who is your ante-post Grand National fancy? Find a needle and delve into the haystack below…

Horse
Age/Wgt
Owner
Trainer
1)
MANY CLOUDS (IRE)
9-11-10
Trevor Hemmings
Oliver Sherwood
2)
SILVINIACO CONTI (FR)
10-11-08
Potensis Bloodstock Ltd & Chris Giles
Paul Nicholls
3)
CARLINGFORD LOUGH (IRE)
10-11-07
J P McManus
John Kiely IRE
4)
FIRST LIEUTENANT (IRE)
11-11-04
Gigginstown House Stud
Mouse Morris IRE
5)
WONDERFUL CHARM (FR)
8-11-03
Robin Geffen
Paul Nicholls
6)
THIRD INTENTION (IRE)
9-11-02
Robert and Sarah Tizzard
Colin Tizzard
7)
BALLYNAGOUR (IRE)
10-11-02
Allan Stennett
David Pipe
8)
O’FAOLAINS BOY (IRE)
9-11-01
Trembath, Hyde, Outhart & Hill
Rebecca Curtis
9)
GILGAMBOA (IRE)
8-11-01
J P McManus
Enda Bolger IRE
10)
ON HIS OWN (IRE)
12-11-01
Andrea & Graham Wylie
Willie Mullins IRE
 
 
11)
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW (IRE)
9-11-00
The Stonehenge Druids
Neil Mulholland
12)
TRIOLO D’ALENE (FR)
9-11-00
Sandy & Caroline Orr
Nicky Henderson
13)
ROCKY CREEK (IRE)
10-10-13
The Johnson & Stewart Families
Paul Nicholls
14)
SIR DES CHAMPS (FR)
10-10-13
Gigginstown House Stud
Willie Mullins IRE
15)
ROI DU MEE (FR)
11-10-13
Gigginstown House Stud
Gordon Elliott IRE
16)
HOLYWELL (IRE)
9-10-12
Gay Smith
Jonjo O’Neill
17)
SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (IRE)
9-10-11
J P McManus
Jonjo O’Neill
18)
SOLL
11-10-11
Derrick Mossop
David Pipe
19)
BUYWISE (IRE)
9-10-10
T Hywel Jones
Evan Williams
20)
BOSTON BOB (IRE)
11-10-10
Andrea & Graham Wylie
Willie Mullins IRE
 
 
21)
TURBAN (FR)
9-10-10
Edward O’Connell
Willie Mullins IRE
22)
AACHEN
12-10-10
Tony Bloom
Venetia Williams
23)
MORNING ASSEMBLY (IRE)
9-10-09
Clipper Logistics Group Ltd
Pat Fahy IRE
24)
DOUBLE ROSS (IRE)
10-10-09
Options O Syndicate
Nigel Twiston-Davies
25)
GOONYELLA (IRE)
9-10-08
Ann & Alan Potts Partnership
Jim Dreaper IRE
26)
UCELLO CONTI (FR)
8-10-08
Simon Munir/Issac Souede
Gordon Elliott IRE
27)
UNIONISTE (FR)
8-10-08
John Hales
Paul Nicholls
28)
LE REVE (IRE)
8-10-08
Pat Betts
Lucy Wadham
29)
GALLANT OSCAR (IRE)
10-10-08
J P McManus
Tony Martin IRE
30)
ONENIGHTINVIENNA (IRE)
7-10-08
Judith Luff
Philip Hobbs
 
 
31)
THE LAST SAMURI (IRE)
8-10-08
Paul & Clare Rooney
Kim Bailey
32)
KRUZHLININ (GER)
9-10-07
Paul & Clare Rooney
Philip Hobbs
33)
RULE THE WORLD
9-10-07
Gigginstown House Stud
Mouse Morris IRE
34)
JUST A PAR (IRE)
9-10-06
Graham Roach & Paul Barber
Paul Nicholls
35)
KATENKO (FR)
10-10-06
Andrew Brooks
Venetia Williams
36)
VICS CANVAS (IRE)
13-10-06
Bodeen Bandits Partnership
Dermot McLoughlin IRE
37)
LIVING NEXT DOOR (IRE)
10-10-06
John Breslin
Tony Martin IRE
38)
BLACK THUNDER (FR)
9-10-06
Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb
Paul Nicholls
39)
BALLYCASEY (IRE)
9-10-06
Susannah Ricci
Willie Mullins IRE
40)
HADRIAN’S APPROACH (IRE)
9-10-06
Richard & Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes
Nicky Henderson
 
 
41)
SPRING HEELED (IRE)
9-10-05
Dr Ronan Lambe
Jim Culloty IRE
42)
KATKEAU (FR)
9-10-05
Prof Caroline Tisdall, J A Gent, R C Wilkin
David Pipe
43)
VIEUX LION ROUGE (FR)
7-10-05
Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent
David Pipe
44)
PENDRA (IRE)
8-10-05
J P McManus
Charlie Longsdon
45)
SAINT ARE (FR)
10-10-05
David Fox
Tom George
46)
HOME FARM (IRE)
9-10-04
Chris Jones
Henry de Bromhead IRE
47)
THE ROMFORD PELE (IRE)
9-10-04
Trembath & Outhart
Rebecca Curtis
48)
KNOCK HOUSE (IRE)
7-10-03
Tim Radford
Mick Channon
49)
BISHOPS ROAD (IRE)
8-10-03
Alan Halsall
Kerry Lee
50)
PINEAU DE RE (FR)
13-10-02
John Provan
Dr Richard Newland
 
 
51)
ALVARADO (IRE)
11-10-02
William & Angela Rucker
Fergal O’Brien
52)
HIGHLAND LODGE (IRE)
10-10-02
Bowes Lodge Stables
James Moffatt
53)
MAGGIO (FR)
11-10-02
Douglas Pryde/James Beaumont
Patrick Griffin IRE
54)
PERFECT CANDIDATE (IRE)
9-10-02
ISL Recruitment
Fergal O’Brien
55)
PRESENT VIEW
8-10-02
Sir Chips Keswick
Jamie Snowden
56)
MIDNIGHT PRAYER
11-10-01
The Legends Partnership
Alan King
57)
CAUSE OF CAUSES (USA)
8-10-01
J P McManus
Gordon Elliott IRE
58)
ROYALE KNIGHT
10-10-01
Chris Stedman & R J Corsan
Dr Richard Newland
59)
BALLY BEAUFORT (IRE)
8-10-01
Rob Rexton
Nigel Twiston-Davies
60)
DOUBLE SEVEN (IRE)
10-10-01
J P McManus
Martin Brassil IRE
 
 
61)
MOUNTAINOUS (IRE)
11-10-01
Hartley Phillips Roseff Shields
Kerry Lee
62)
SPLASH OF GINGE
9-10-00
John Neild
Nigel Twiston-Davies
63)
EMPEROR’S CHOICE (IRE)
9-10-00
The Bellamy Partnership
Venetia Williams
64)
CORRIN WOOD (IRE)
9-10-00
Dermot Hanafin Robert Rose Ian Whitfield
Donald McCain
65)
DARE TO ENDEAVOUR
9-10-00
Aidan Ryan
Eric McNamara IRE
66)
BLESS THE WINGS (IRE)
11-10-00
Adrian Butler/S P O’Connor
Gordon Elliott IRE
67)
MILBOROUGH (IRE)
10-9-13
Helen Cross
Ian Duncan
68)
GAS LINE BOY (IRE)
10-9-13
The Three Graces
Jim Best
69)
BOB FORD (IRE)
9-9-12
The JJ Partnership
Rebecca Curtis
 
 
70)
ROGUE ANGEL (IRE)
8-9-12
Gigginstown House Stud
Mouse Morris IRE
71)
RUSSE BLANC (FR)
9-9-12
Mark Jackson
Kerry Lee
72)
FIREBIRD FLYER (IRE)
9-9-11
R E R Williams
Evan Williams
73)
MR MOONSHINE (IRE)
12-9-11
D Pryde, J Beaumont, D van der Hoeven 1
Sue Smith
74)
BIG WATER (IRE)
8-9-10
Elm Row Racing Syndicate
Alan Swinbank
75)
SUMMERY JUSTICE (IRE)
12-9-09
Mrs H Brown
Venetia Williams
76)
COGRY
7-9-09
Graham and Alison Jelley
Nigel Twiston-Davies
77)
NO SECRETS (IRE)
12-9-09
Malcolm Denmark
Tony Martin IRE
78)
BENVOLIO (IRE)
9-9-09
Patricia Thompson
Paul Nicholls
79)
AMIGO (FR)
9-9-08
Andrew Cohen & Willsford Racing
David Pipe
 
 
80)
GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN (IRE)
11-9-08
Brocade Racing
Colin Tizzard
81)
STANDING OVATION (IRE)
9-9-07
The Bravo Partnershi
David Pipe
82)
INDIAN CASTLE (IRE)
8-9-07
Askew Dick Hernon Reynard
Ian Williams
83)
GOLDEN WONDER (IRE)
10-9-07
P M Cooney
Sandra Hughes IRE
84)
DOING FINE (IRE)
8-9-07
Carl Hinchy
Rebecca Curtis
85)
RIVAGE D’OR (FR)
11-9-07
Gigginstown House Stud
Tony Martin IRE
86)
WYCK HILL (IRE)
12-9-06
J P McManus
David Bridgwater
87)
IKORODU ROAD
13-9-06
W J Odell
Graeme McPherson
88)
PORTRAIT KING (IRE)
11-9-04
James Beaumont & Douglas Pryde
Patrick Griffin IRE
89)
WOODFORD COUNTY
9-9-04
The Englands and Heywoods
Philip Hobbs
 
 
90)
ANY CURRENCY (IRE)
13-9-03
Cash Is King
Martin Keighley
91)
TOUR DES CHAMPS (FR)
9-9-02
Caroline Mould
Nigel Twiston-Davies
92)
GODSMEJUDGE (IRE)
10-9-02
Favourites Racing Ltd
David Dennis
93)
SAROQUE (IRE)
9-9-02
Andrew Brooks
Venetia Williams
94)
AERLITE SUPREME (IRE)
9-9-01
M J Haines
Evan Williams
95)
FINANCIAL CLIMATE (IRE)
9-9-01
Sara Fillery & Friends
Oliver Sherwood
96)
HARRY THE VIKING
11-9-01
Jim Beaumont & Quona Thomson
Sandy Thomson
 
96 horses go forward following March 22 scratchings deadline
28 Irish-trained
THE FOLLOWING 17 HORSES HAVE BEEN TAKEN OUT:
DON POLI (IRE), VALSEUR LIDO (FR), FOXROCK (IRE), SAM WINNER (FR), LORD WINDERMERE (IRE), LONG RUN (FR), BEAR’S AFFAIR (IRE), MENDIP EXPRESS (IRE), MON PARRAIN (FR), SHOTGUN PADDY (IRE), BENBENS (IRE), BROADWAY BUFFALO, GRAY HESSION (IRE), OUR FATHER (IRE), OPERATING (IRE), COMPETITIVE EDGE (IRE), RATHLIN

 

 

 

 

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